Emerging Market Earnings: Is The Tide Turning?
After disappointing investors last year, emerging market earnings forecasts may finally be consistent with what can be delivered. Emerging markets (EM) have underperformed U.S. markets since the summer of 2011. The reasons are numerous, including concerns about the Chinese economy (the largest and most important among EM), the strength of the U.S. dollar, and the decline in commodity prices, just to name a few. However, there is some reason to believe this trend might be reversing. Macroeconomic and political considerations tend to dominate the conversation around the asset class. We will address certain economic considerations, especially the impact of currency movements on the asset class, in an upcoming Weekly Economic Commentary. Here we focus on what we believe is the improving earnings picture for the asset class. Though the recent improvement appears to be partially due to stability in commodity prices, the revision in earnings estimates extends far beyond commodities and into consumer and technology companies.