An important shift has taken place in this economic cycle. The Federal Reserve (Fed) was finally able to start following through on its projected rate hike path, raising rates twice in just over a three-month period. By doing so, the Fed showed increasing trust that the economy has largely met its dual mandate of 2% inflation and full employment, that the economy is progressively able to stand on its own two feet, and that fiscal policy may now provide the backstop to the economy that monetary policy has provided throughout the expansion. The gauges say growth engines and market drivers may have changed: power down monetary policy, power up business fundamentals, and potentially take fiscal policy and economic growth off standby.
GDP Growth Near 2.5%
We continue to look for the U.S. economy to expand up to 2.5% in 2017, although potential delays in passing major fiscal policies introduce some risk to the downside. Data on consumption, employment, housing, manufacturing, and services all point toward improvement in the months and quarters ahead following sluggish first quarter GDP growth.
6 – 9% Returns
As investors increasingly trust that the economy can stand on its own without the need of monetary policy support, business fundamentals should take over as the primary market engine and corporate profits will take on increasing importance. We have slightly raised our 2017 S&P 500 Index total return forecast to 6 – 9%, commensurate with expected earnings gains.
Emerging over Developed
Though fundamentals are firming, growth in Europe and Japan has only gradually improved from low levels. Monetary policy has fueled economic and financial market gains with central bank support continuing, yet economic reforms are still needed. We remain cautious on developed international markets, but more constructive on emerging markets (EM).
Limited Return Potential
We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to end 2017 in the 2.25 – 2.75% range, with the potential for moves toward 3.0% should anticipated policy support lead to a meaningful rise in economic activity. Divergent global central bank activities, moderate inflation pressures, and attractive valuations for U.S. Treasuries relative to global alternatives may support bonds at higher yields.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Investing in stock includes numerous specific risks including: the fluctuation of dividend, loss of principal, and potential liquidity of the investment in a falling market.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not ensure against market risk.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond and bond mutual fund values and yields will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
Mortgage-backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment risk that acts much like call risk when you get your principal back sooner than the stated maturity, extension risk, the opposite of prepayment risk, market and interest rate risk.
Bank loans are loans issued by below investment-grade companies for short-term funding purposes with higher yield than short term debt and involve risk.
Investing in MLPs involves additional risks as compared with the risks of investing in common stock, including risks related to cash flow, dilution, and voting rights. MLPs may trade less frequently than larger companies due to their smaller capitalizations, which may result in erratic price movement or difficulty in buying or selling. MLPs are subject to significant regulation and may be adversely affected by changes in the regulatory environment, including the risk that an MLP could lose its tax status as a partnership. Additional management fees and other expenses are associated with investing in MLP funds.