Europe Enters The Tour De France

The next four weeks will be a major turning point for European investors. France is in the middle of what is arguably its most important election cycle since World War II. The results of the second round of presidential elections, as well as parliamentary elections scheduled for mid-June, will determine if France maintains its historical position as one of the primary advocates for European integration and identity or if anti-European candidates garner additional power. France is both literally and figuratively at the center of Europe, and the concern that it will become more anti-European may be having greater impact on the markets than is apparent at first. Even with pressing political issues, it’s important not to overlook corporate fundamentals, which have also been seeing a meaningful reversal. European corporate earnings experienced a strong rebound at the end of 2016, with consensus expectations from Thomson Reuters of another 20% increase over 2017. These are optimistic forecasts, and though certainly possible, combined with the political uncertainty has kept LPL Research from recommending European equities on a tactical basis.

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