Overseeing Poor Earnings Overseas
Macroeconomics and geopolitics are interesting to discuss, but earnings are what drive markets. We tend to forget that truism when dealing with international markets. The recent Brexit vote and discussions on how, and even if, the United Kingdom will eventually leave the European Union have dominated the news, and especially social media. However, the biggest problems facing developed foreign markets are not politics or economics, but the inability of non- U.S.-based companies to grow earnings and revenue. In Europe, earnings are falling faster than revenue, though expectations have been improving for growth in both metrics. The earnings picture in Japan remains very troubled. Overall, we are looking for a turnaround in earnings and earnings expectations before becoming optimistic on developed foreign equities.