Dollar Strength is a Symptom, Not a Cause

Weekly Market Commentary 3-16-15

The massive U.S. dollar rally has wide-ranging impacts. It hurts international stock returns generated in foreign currencies. It influences global trade and the flow of investment dollars. A strong dollar hurts corporate earnings by reducing revenue earned by U.S.-based multinationals overseas in foreign currencies. It even puts downward pressure on inflation and commodity prices (including oil) and can influence monetary policy, corporate profit margins, and consumer spending.

These are important considerations, but the key question investors are asking is whether the strong dollar will derail the bull market. We don’t think so, based on how stocks have done historically during strong dollar periods. But the dollar does have important implications for asset classes and sectors, as we discuss below.

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