There have been a lot of bad movie sequels. Remember Ghostbusters II? Grease 2? Blues Brothers 2000? In the case of this Weekly Market Commentary, “Don’t Fight the Fed ECB? (Part 2 of 2),” we hope you find the sequel at least as good as the original, perhaps something closer to The Godfather: Part II than The Godfather: Part III.
Last week we answered the question of whether the latest bold stimulus measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) are a buy signal for European equities. We highlighted key differences between buying Europe now and the United States several years ago during the start of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) quantitative easing (QE) programs. The different pictures for growth, valuations, and corporate profits in Europe versus the United States lead us to conclude that we should take a broader view to evaluate the investment opportunity in Europe. To that end, this week we take a deeper dive into the investment opportunity in Europe and evaluate fundamentals, valuations, and technicals — none of which we find particularly compelling at this time.