Consulting Our Technical Playbook

Weekly Market Commentary 9-8-15

When markets are tough, emotions can take over. The natural emotional response to sharp stock market declines is to sell. In periods like these, especially when the media sensationalize every gloomy angle as they tend to do, an objective look at the data can be reassuring and help us make better investment decisions.

Like analyzing statistics to assess the outcome of a football game (this week does mark the beginning of the NFL season), the stock market gives us a lot of data over many decades to help us make good investment decisions when our initial emotional reaction might be to call a time-out and sell stocks. History gives us our playbook — so no matter what the environment (or who the opponent), we should have a good idea of how to respond and what play to call. We won’t always be right, but we can seek to stack the odds in our favor and increase our chances of gaining yards while limiting fumbles.

This week we take a technical, data-driven approach to assess the likelihood that the current market decline (now about 10% from the May 21, 2015, S&P 500 peak) becomes something worse.

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