Josh Klinger is a Wealth Advisor at TVAMP. He believes that wealth isn’t a privilege. Individuals and families must make consistent, conscientious financial decisions and exercise patience. He is actively involved in the community and enjoys working out.
Immediately after the first kickoff of every Tennessee football game this year, Bob Kesling will recite the iconic phrase, “It’s Football Time in Tennessee.”
As a Tennessee football fan this simple phrase will incite many mixed emotions. For most that phrase will resonate optimism, fun, and the signal of fall. For others that phrase will evoke emotions of heartbreak, anger and disappointment. As a former athlete and competitor, I hate losing. It’s a serious problem that at times has gotten the best of me in social, work and athletic situations. Lately, I’ve thought a lot about this. It’s almost like the agony of defeat hurts more than the thrill of victory (a feeling all too familiar to Vols fans lately). This holds true in all facets of our lives. In sales, the thrill of closing a deal or sale is great, but oftentimes it doesn’t combat the negative emotions associated with losing a sale or deal. That person who didn’t call you back after a great meeting. It stings. The person who knows the right decision to make yet doesn’t make it, despite your best efforts. That stings, too. The person who said no to a dinner date. That really stings. In life, business, and relationships there is a certain level of optimism we must maintain in order to survive. Most people quit when it gets hard. Keep going.
Remember the optimism most of us will feel right after “It’s Football Time in Tennessee” echoes through your ears each Saturday this season.
Strive to live your life with that same sense of positivity and hopefulness. Live Invested. Live life on purpose. No matter how many times a Vol football game breaks our hearts and discourages our optimism, we are still here every fall in our orange and white hoping this is our year. Here’s to being optimistic in all facets of life and an 8-win season.
Economy Update
Geez, what is going on? Anyone feel confused by all the things happening in the economy? Trade wars, inverted yield curves, negative yields, what does it all mean? There are a lot of opinions about where the markets/economy are heading. Here is what we think:
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Historically speaking, August and September are challenging months for stock market returns. Throw in the fact that U.S. indexes were up almost 20% year-to-date in late July and it was natural for markets to pull back from ALL-TIME highs in late July and into August.
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The U.S. economy is on firm ground. Retail sales advanced month-over-month in July; second quarter non-farm productivity is higher than expected; U.S. consumers have spent $2 trillion this year, a 5.9% increase from this time last year; and the Price to Earnings of the S&P 500 is still a reasonable 16.95 as of July 31, 2019.
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U.S. treasury yields are falling; however, this is predominately a by-product of what’s going on in the rest of the world, not domestically. China’s growth rate dropped, which in turn pushed the Yuan lower. Parts of Europe are issuing negative interest rate debt. Naturally, investors are flocking to U.S. Treasuries. Remember bonds operate separately from stocks. As more money flows into bonds, their yield goes lower, while their price increases. It’s an inverse relationship. As money continues to flow into U.S. Treasuries, expect to see a spread tightening between shorter and longer duration bonds.
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The Federal Reserve continues to indicate lowering the Fed Funds borrowing rate after dropping it .25% at their last meeting. Call me an optimist (see above), but maybe we learned something from Chairman Powell’s latest speech.
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The market isn’t going to go up in a vacuum every day and/or year. It just won’t happen. My take is that the Federal Reserve is picturing a recession somewhere on the horizon in the next 1-4 years. Hopefully, manipulating borrowing rates in expectation of a recession in the future limits the duration of any pending recession.
We will continue to remain optimistic on the future of the U.S. stock market.
We expect to continue seeing a choppy market through August and September with a late surge heading into the Christmas season. Thanks for reading, and please let us know if we can assist you in any way. Live Invested®.
Optimistic Vol Fan,
Josh Klinger, J.D. AAMS®