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It’s that time of year when economists and market “experts” lay out their predictions for GDP, inflation, stock returns, interest rates and everything else you can imagine for the year ahead.

Our advice when it comes to these predictions – ignore them all.

Most are wrong, some are laughable. But all are designed to fill airtime and magazine columns.

The only certainty is uncertainty.

The best quote we read this year comes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a Lebanese- American mathematician, statistician, and author) who says: “invest in preparedness, not prediction.”

As financial planners, our job is to prepare clients for the certainty of uncertainty.

We know the stock market will once again rise and fall. We know inflation will once again rise and fall. We know wars, pandemics, and natural disasters will occur. Yet we don’t know when any of this will happen or the severity of any of it.

Our job is not the exercise of prediction (for that is folly) – but instead to position you to weather inevitable surprises.

Most experienced professionals who work in financial planning will agree – investing is more about behavior than stock picking.

It’s extremely likely that the right behavior will have a larger impact on your financial situation than any investment you (or we) will ever pick as a “winner”.

A great deal of progress can be made by avoiding mistakes.

In fact, part of our purpose statement is to help you avoid expensive financial mistakes. It’s right there on our website homepage.

So, as we close the books on 2023 and look forward to 2024, we encourage you to focus on the things you can control. To spend your time, energy and resources on the things you value – and invest in preparedness, not prediction.


Happy New Year from everyone at TVAMP!

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